OECD Predicts that UK GDP Will Exceed 3%

"In November, it [the OECD] suggested that [UK] GDP would be 2.4% in 2014, but the prediction is now 3.2%. This is higher than the forecasts for the US (2.6%) and the Eurozone (1.2%)".

This is not far from Mark Carney's forecast of 3.4% and he based it on the results of interviews the BOE had with industry. Last month the IMF waded in with their prediction of 2.9% after the chancellor's 2.7% forecast which was upgraded from 2.4%.

As you can see, we started the year with a forecast of 2.4% which the Chancellor revised to 2.7%. Then came the IMF with 2.9% and now the OECD with 3.2%. The clear winner is Mark Carney who stuck to his guns with a forecast of 3.4% despite people baulking at it.

At long last, the troops are rallying round my forecast of 3% for 2014. However, an updated forecast for 2015 is 2.7% from 2.5%. Although it's a step in the right direction, it's too far from my target of 4%. However, I wanted such a high growth rate because I was trying to get the budget to balance by 2016 so that we can start reducing the National Debt to manageable levels (45% of GDP) by 2018/19.

This dream was shattered when the Chancellor announced that the government will balance the budget by March 2018. Some European leaders are saying that a manageable level is 60% of GDP. That may be true but it leaves too much debt for future generations. The WPM will work on the basis that we'll achieve 60% followed by 50% and eventually 45% if not lower. I apologise for not setting deadlines, I don't want to miss them and give the wrong impression.

I said earlier that I hope the Chancellor, in his 2015 budget, would report that the government will balance the budget by March 2017 and in the Autumn Statement he will report that we'll balance the budget by March 2016 - my original plan. We'll get a clue in the Autumn Statement of 2014.

The fact that GDP growth is being revised upwards, it makes it more and more likely. Unfortunately, there are no takers of my 4% in 2015. But then there were no takers for my 3% in 2014 apart from Mark Carney. So there's still hope.

I thought that leaders are supposed to be ambitious  and set bold targets then make policy to achieve those targets. This type of leadership is being left to the WPM who are rising to the occasion. Their targets are often ignored when published but are eventually achieved.