Update on 2013 Repossessions

Sorry about the delay - I didn't realise the figures were published on 14th Feb.

Anyway, it was widely predicted that the repossession figures for 2013 would be <30,000. I wanted to set targets for the next 5 years so I assumed a figure of 29K. Take that away from 2009's 46K and you get 17K in 4 years. Take that away from the assumed figure of 29K and you get 12K in 4 years. All we then need is to reduce it by a further 3K to achieve a target of 9K.

Well on the 14th of February the preliminary report showed that the actual repossessions in 2013 were 28,900. Hence our forecast stands. 2012 figures were 33,900 that's a reduction of 5K. We would've wanted more because it gets progressively harder to reduce the repossession rate as the numbers get smaller.

Besides, we were only able to make these reductions because of the forbearance of the lenders but that can only last so long so we have to replace it with sustained growth. The strong growth of 2013 is the start of better times to come. The focus now is on repaying or rather reducing the debts mentioned in the structural imbalance report: household debt, commercial debt, national debt, and balance of payments deficits.

In order to do this, industry has to create enough wealth for the people concerned to pay down their debts as explained in my article about the Economic Fractionating Column.

For this to happen, we need to have growth of 3% in 2014 and an average of 3.5% for the following 4 years. This is in keeping with the WPM's original target of reducing national debt to 45% of GDP by 2018. European Governments are saying that 60% of GDP would be sustainable. This implies that 45% cannot be met by 2018.

Since it's the people who create the wealth, if they're given the opportunity, anything can be achieved including 45% by 2018 providing there's sufficient demand within Europe and overseas. The keyword here is sustainable development - we can achieve any target but can we sustain it? and at what cost? The WPM is prepared to change the time goalpost say till 2020. We can review this closer to the time. The problem with changing goalposts is that it introduces complacency and this cannot be tolerated.