The BoE agrees with my 3% target for 2014

Today I read The Times and I came across an article about the Bank of England (BoE) predicting 2014 growth of 3.4%. So what's all the fuss about a target of 3%? Industry experts say it's wildly optimistic and unrealistic. Typical of the British to think like that, it's no wonder their estimates are always wrong. Not only that, but when they're estimating calamities, they go over the top; and when they estimate good news, they underestimate. I suppose they're erring on the side of caution.

When you exaggerate a negative indicator, you lower people's expectations or even worry them unnecessarily thus achieving the negative scenario. Similarly, when you understate a positive indicator, you also lower people's expectations and achieve mediocre results.

What Britain needs is a strong leader with positive aims and aspirations for the British people. Someone who can not only inspire the people but fire them up to achieve greater goals. Being a visionary is one thing; telling the people how to achieve the vision is another. At least give the people an outline and fill it in as time goes by. The methodical way it's done should identify you as a visionary but getting it right or at least approximately right will identify you as a leader.

So is Mark Carney, BoE Governor, a leader for the British people? Well he's a visionary for the time being. But by this time next year, we'll know if he has leadership qualities. People may forget about his replacing the forward guidance by a more comprehensive one. He published it in August 2013 after the very strong Q2 GDP figures and strong July employment figures. I bet he's still finding his feet as he's still new to the job.

It's nice to have supporters of this calibre. I only need members of the Government or its agencies to corroborate this optimistic view. In recent years the IMF and the OECD were pleased with our work which seems to be getting better. Will they wade in with optimistic figures? We need all the help we can get but not to lull ourselves into a false sense of security.

I don't mind calling myself a leader because I've got an illustrious track record to back me up - I've been keeping my head when everyone else were losing theirs. And my success goes a long way back. The one that I can remember clearly is steering the British Economy through a supposed recession in 1999/2000. But I couldn't have done it without the cooperation of the Government and Industry.

Till next time, stay optimistic.