The CML published its quarterly report on house repossessions and it's 36,400 well below the WPM's prediction of 38,000. At the time this prediction was made, people said it wasn't possible - but time has proved them wrong. I mean the CML's prediction was 53,000 but they reduced it to 39,000 in the Summer of 2010.
This is another feather in the WPM's cap; the first one was forecasting a repossession rate of 50,000 in 2009 as opposed to the CML's 75,000. At the time, they reduced it 65,000 then 48,000 and it eventually came in at 46,000 but then it was revised to just over 47,000. Notice, that the WPM always stick to their forecast come what may - and we're always vindicated.
The WPM's forecast for 2011 is 32,000. Impossible I hear you say. Well, the RICS believe that the down trend will continue to 33,000 and the CML believe it to be 40,000. With Q4 GDP at -0.5%, I rekon the CML will win this round especially with the spending cuts yet to bite and the base rates yet to rise.
I'm betting that the BoE won't raise rates while the economy is in dire straites - the spending cuts will do enough damage. Besides, it won't affect the real inflation; all it will do is choke demand reducing productivity and sales thus reducing GDP. Politics of a mad house if they go against advice.
The WPM will help stabilise the economy thus helping improve the repossession rate. Remember the latter is an indirect effect of the progress the former is making.
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