Long-term Forecast for Repossessions

In December 2013, the CML forecasted that the repossessions will be <30,000 for 2013. I assumed that it would be 29,000. The first report for 2009 placed repossessions at 46,000. This gives a reduction of 17,000 in 4 years - an average of 4,000 per year. Hence we should achieve a reduction of 20,000 in 5 years to give a target of 9,000 repossessions by December 2018.

After protestations, I found out that the final report of repossessions in 2009 was actually 49,000. The difference between that and the 29,000 in 2013 is 20,000 in 4 years i.e. 5,000 per year. So, in 5 years we should achieve 25,000.

The protests continued: it gets progressively harder to reduce repossessions from lower and lower figures. First, a brief history of repossessions and unemployment:

Year	Repossessions	Unemployment
2008	40,000	5.5%
2009	49,000	7.8%
2010	36,000	8.0%
2011	36,000	8.4%
2012	34,000	7.9%
2013	29,000	7.2%

As you can see, the difference in repossessions between 2010 and 2011 is zero; between 2011 and 2012 it is 2,000; between 2012 and 2013 it is 5,000. In other words, as the repossessions gets smaller, the difference gets larger.

Notice also that the period Q4 2008 to Q1 2013, the economy was in recession and we are now in a recovery which has taken hold. Also notice that there's now no relationship between repossessions and the rate of unemployment.

A paradigm shift has taken place during the recession. It's true that adversity concentrates the mind.

So the target for December 2018 is 9,000 repossessions. I have no forecast  for unemployment yet. But lets have a look at the history of recessions. Unfortunately, we didn't have a recession at the turn of the century so there seems to be a loss of continuity:

Year	Unemployment
1981	12.0%
1991	10.8%
2011	8.4%

This proves beyond a shadow of a doubt that society is becoming more humane i.e. socialist. The above figures imply that, if we had a recession in 2001, the peak unemployment figures would've been approx 9.6%. Notice that the peak unemployment figures are coming down substantially. Repossessions in 1991 were 75,000 and in 2009 it was 49,000 - a tremendous reduction but it covers a longer period.

In the past, peak repossession used to coincide with peak unemployment but not anymore.

OECD Predicts that UK GDP Will Exceed 3%

"In November, it [the OECD] suggested that [UK] GDP would be 2.4% in 2014, but the prediction is now 3.2%. This is higher than the forecasts for the US (2.6%) and the Eurozone (1.2%)".

This is not far from Mark Carney's forecast of 3.4% and he based it on the results of interviews the BOE had with industry. Last month the IMF waded in with their prediction of 2.9% after the chancellor's 2.7% forecast which was upgraded from 2.4%.

As you can see, we started the year with a forecast of 2.4% which the Chancellor revised to 2.7%. Then came the IMF with 2.9% and now the OECD with 3.2%. The clear winner is Mark Carney who stuck to his guns with a forecast of 3.4% despite people baulking at it.

At long last, the troops are rallying round my forecast of 3% for 2014. However, an updated forecast for 2015 is 2.7% from 2.5%. Although it's a step in the right direction, it's too far from my target of 4%. However, I wanted such a high growth rate because I was trying to get the budget to balance by 2016 so that we can start reducing the National Debt to manageable levels (45% of GDP) by 2018/19.

This dream was shattered when the Chancellor announced that the government will balance the budget by March 2018. Some European leaders are saying that a manageable level is 60% of GDP. That may be true but it leaves too much debt for future generations. The WPM will work on the basis that we'll achieve 60% followed by 50% and eventually 45% if not lower. I apologise for not setting deadlines, I don't want to miss them and give the wrong impression.

I said earlier that I hope the Chancellor, in his 2015 budget, would report that the government will balance the budget by March 2017 and in the Autumn Statement he will report that we'll balance the budget by March 2016 - my original plan. We'll get a clue in the Autumn Statement of 2014.

The fact that GDP growth is being revised upwards, it makes it more and more likely. Unfortunately, there are no takers of my 4% in 2015. But then there were no takers for my 3% in 2014 apart from Mark Carney. So there's still hope.

I thought that leaders are supposed to be ambitious  and set bold targets then make policy to achieve those targets. This type of leadership is being left to the WPM who are rising to the occasion. Their targets are often ignored when published but are eventually achieved.

IMF Forecasts UK GDP Growth of 2.9% in 2014 to Lead the World

In December 2013, I set a target of 3% for 2014 and 4% for 2015 if we're going to balance the books by 31/03/2016. This will enable us to reduce the National Debt to around 60% of GDP by 31/03/2019. In the March 2014 budget, the Chancellor told us the bad news - the government will balance the budget by 2018 and start to reduce the National Debt from then. In the same budget, he gave us some good news: he upgraded growth forecast for 2014 to be 2.7% up from 2.4%; and he will double the amount spent on exports to £3bn which will help the declining export industry.

Recently, the IMF said that the UK will lead the world in 2014 with growth of 2.9% - just short of the WPM's 3%; but will fall back to the trend growth of 2.5% in 2015. This is supported by other economists who claim that growth in 2013 and 2014 is due to the Help to Buy scheme. Although it's due to end in March 2016, any spare cash people have will peter out by the end of 2014. This means that, according to these economic forecasters, the WPM's target of 4% growth in 2015 is next to impossible as the current expansion is spending-led.

Growth of 4% is still possible if wage rises of 2% or more are awarded in 2014 or at least in 2015. This is necessary for the Economic Fractionating Column to work. This is where industry will generate enough wealth to pay it's employees so that they can pay their way and pay down their household debts; plus enough wealth to pay their way and pay down their own commercial debts; plus enough wealth so that they and their employees pay enough tax so that the Government can pay their way and pay down the National Debt.

Now that the Chancellor has missed his target of balancing the budget by 2015 and delayed it till 2018, growth of 4% in 2015 is purely academic. I'm hoping that, in the March 2015 budget, the chancellor will tell us that we'll now balance the budget by March 2017 and in the Autumn statement, he'll update us with the fact that we'll balance the budget by March 2016. The Chancellor will give us a clue in the Autumn Statement of 2014. This is the stuff that dreams are made of.

I'm in the process of setting up a company called FullEmploy whose aim is to reduce unemployment and the skills shortage and maintain them at low levels. FullEmploy will build relationships with 5 types of people: 1. the Unemployed; 2. the Employers; 3. the Training Providers; 4. the Skills Funding Agency; and 5. the Politicians.

I gave each of those types of people likely objectives but the most interesting set was that of the politicians. One of the objectives I set for them was for the UK to be a world leader. This has now been echoed by the IMF within 12 months of my setting it. Now there's progress. I'm still waiting for the Rating agencies to comment on reinstating the triple-A rating for the UK. All they could say is that if Scotland votes for independence, this will delay the reinstatement of the UK's triple-A rating.

By the Autumn statement, we'll know Scotland's situation and what ramifications this has for the possibly dis-united kingdom.

2013 GDP Growth Revised Down to 1.7%

You may remember me saying that official estimates for 2013 GDP growth were 1.4% which was corroborated by the IMF and the chancellor published it in Dec 2013. By that time, economists have seen strong growth and were predicting growth of 1.6% which I accepted; but others were even predicting growth of 1.9%.

Because I was setting a target of 3% for 2014, I was attracted to the 1.9% forecast. Late January 2014, the preliminary GDP growth for 2013 was published at 1.9% the high end of expectations. After celebrations, I forecasted that it may be reduced to 1.8%. The February report reduced it to 1.8% and I said even if it goes down to 1.7% in March, we'll still be on target for 3% in 2014. Well, here we are in march and it has been reduced to 1.7%; but it's still ahead of the consensus 1.6%.

Political shenanigans seem to be derailing this target vis-a-vis the Crimean situation. It looks like old world politics are still with us. Are we going to let this dampen our spirits? Heck no. The Chancellor had revised 2014 GDP growth from 2.4% to 2.7%; just as well in the current circumstances.

GDP growth does depend on international trade and business profitability. Political activities, such as the situation in Crimea, do limit that profitability as international trade is reduced. Whether we overcome it will depend on how long it lasts. The Crimea situation may not be the only thing that's hampering growth. Besides, we can't predict what shocks to the system we'll encounter during 2014.

The WPM does not change its targets no matter what happens. They just admit they were wrong and use the lessons to inform future targets. The WPM tries to solve the causes that make them miss their targets.

France surprises with return to expansion

"The preliminary estimate of Markit's composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for France was 51.6 in March, up from February's 47.9 reading and above the 50 level that indicates expansion."

Economists expected France to go through another month of contraction but it turned its economy around that surprised most people. This is a step in the right direction. Overall GDP growth for the Eurozone was 0.3% at the end of 2013, the first step in the right direction. Now that France has joined in, Eurozone growth is gaining traction.

This came after Francois Hollande was criticised for running down the French economy. Either he paid attention to the criticism or he's ignoring his monetary advisors. I believe that all countries should ignore their monetary advisors unless they regard money as a medium of exchange and nothing else. Money does not make money! People do.

It's possible for a number of people to make products or provide services without money and still make a profit. OK they'd need money for living expenses but it's not millions. I'm not talking about getting the means of production on traditional credit terms; I'm talking about getting into agreement with suppliers and distributors that they'll be paid after the products/services have been sold and the money received. This is a sort of partnership where all the players share the profits and the risks.

There seems to be that a paradigm shift is happening away from monetary policies - after all, it was monetary system that caused this financial crisis. This is closer to the WPM's dream of reforming the monetary system and getting rid of derivatives trading once and for all. We'll still use money as a medium of exchange but the focus will be on value production which is done by "we the people". Already some organisations are treating their employees as assets despite the fact that their accounts are putting the salaries in the liabilities column.

I read an article about Hyman Minsky who explained that the cause of instability is stability itself. Although this has its merits, I believe that the problem was caused by the use of mathematical models to determine the monetary make up of the financial system. Most managers and politicians didn't know how these complex instruments worked and enabled those that do to rig the system in their favour.

This is another reason to dismantle this system and a return to a value-based system without the rocket science that bamboozles everyone.

Update on 2013 Repossessions

Sorry about the delay - I didn't realise the figures were published on 14th Feb.

Anyway, it was widely predicted that the repossession figures for 2013 would be <30,000. I wanted to set targets for the next 5 years so I assumed a figure of 29K. Take that away from 2009's 46K and you get 17K in 4 years. Take that away from the assumed figure of 29K and you get 12K in 4 years. All we then need is to reduce it by a further 3K to achieve a target of 9K.

Well on the 14th of February the preliminary report showed that the actual repossessions in 2013 were 28,900. Hence our forecast stands. 2012 figures were 33,900 that's a reduction of 5K. We would've wanted more because it gets progressively harder to reduce the repossession rate as the numbers get smaller.

Besides, we were only able to make these reductions because of the forbearance of the lenders but that can only last so long so we have to replace it with sustained growth. The strong growth of 2013 is the start of better times to come. The focus now is on repaying or rather reducing the debts mentioned in the structural imbalance report: household debt, commercial debt, national debt, and balance of payments deficits.

In order to do this, industry has to create enough wealth for the people concerned to pay down their debts as explained in my article about the Economic Fractionating Column.

For this to happen, we need to have growth of 3% in 2014 and an average of 3.5% for the following 4 years. This is in keeping with the WPM's original target of reducing national debt to 45% of GDP by 2018. European Governments are saying that 60% of GDP would be sustainable. This implies that 45% cannot be met by 2018.

Since it's the people who create the wealth, if they're given the opportunity, anything can be achieved including 45% by 2018 providing there's sufficient demand within Europe and overseas. The keyword here is sustainable development - we can achieve any target but can we sustain it? and at what cost? The WPM is prepared to change the time goalpost say till 2020. We can review this closer to the time. The problem with changing goalposts is that it introduces complacency and this cannot be tolerated.

Even Greece is showing the way with its current account surplus

I learnt earlier this week that Greece turned a current account surplus in 2013; the first time this happened since records began in 1948. If heavily indebted Greece can have a surplus, why can't the UK?

I'm pleased for Greece because they've shown the world community that they can repay their debts at some time in the future. They didn't know which area of the economy would give them an advantage. They do now - its the tourism industry. Obviously, Greece needs a broader contribution i.e. across all sectors of the economy. But they can build on this one.

Back home (UK), the Treasury has identified the 4 horsemen of the apocalypse:

1. Household debt
2. Commercial debt
3. National debt
4. Balance of Payments deficit

I've already given a possible solution to the above. The 4th item was caused by lower productivity which led to poorer exports which led the UK losing market share of the global economy and was made worse by increasing imports. The solution to the 4th item is obvious - take a leaf from Greece's book. Not that British tourism is going to ignite the economy; it's the fact that turning a current account surplus is possible no matter how indebted you are.

As for the other 3, they can only be alleviated by sustained strong economic growth and the proceeds of this growth need to be evenly distributed. Already some members of the press are saying that wage rises will grow faster than inflation. I should think so if industry and the people are going to pay down their debts. Wages have been declining in real terms for around 5 years; they need to grow above inflation for the next 5 years. However, we're talking about sustained growth; we can't afford to fuel another bubble i.e. industry and the people must pay down a substantial amount of their debts to manageable levels. The paying down of debts, including the National Debt, will take the heat off the economy so there will be little cause for concern over inflation - except maybe for external factors.

Next month is budget month. Until then...